Thursday, January 14, 2010

idea #7 CBMX

Combimatrix is a biotech company in Irvine.  It's been the subject of 2 vic writeups.  The first VIC writeup talked more about their products.  The second vic writeup focused on the cash from a legal settlement.

The company is not profitable but it has developed some successful product lines that are by themselves profitable and growing (albeit slowly).  It is attempting to sell them.  They almost had them sold last august before the markets crashed.  As it stands, their R&D budget is killing their operating profits and they're burning cash.   

The most recent writeup on VIC estimates there is a 95% chance CBMX will receive $30+ million in a lawsuit, leaving the company with around $6/share in net cash.  The author estimates their remaining products being worth between $2 and $7 per share.  The company's history is particularly ugly because of all the equity & warrants issued to raise capital, supposedly to withstand the lawsuit process, but it looks like the PHDs running the company want to keep the lab open anyway they can.

The lawsuit;  They won the lawsuit in 2008.  The loser appealed and put up a bond for the entire amount.  The appeal hearing consists of a 15 minute oral argument, to take place on feb. 2, 2010 in Pasadena.  The vic writeup goes into detail on why the appeal will likely favor CBMX. 

Big negative to me:  The 44 year old boss is PHD who gets paid $400k-$800k per year in salary and bonuses, he owns 160k shares (2.6%).  Based on that, I'd say he's incentivized NOT to sell.  He will milk this thing forever.  He'd much rather get his minimum $400k salary as long as possible than a one-time $1 million (assuming $8/share) for his shares.  I don't see him wanting out or trying to maximize shareholder value.  I see him taking the cash and using it to keep the lab open and his paycheck covered.

No comments:

Post a Comment